Detecting DeFi Risk, Before It Breaks
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Rating Screen · Methodology v1.1

GMX

Derivatives · GMX · $0.22B TVL. Screen grades as of November 12, 2026: Solvency BBB, Legitimacy BBB, Growth B. Jul 2025 V1 exploit $42M with $40M returned — reflected in risk score, no cap.

Data As Of November 12, 2026 Methodology v1.1 (screen, provisional) Previous Screen July 27, 2026 Caps Triggered 0
SolvencyCREDIT GRADE
BBB
64.8 / 100
Will it survive and pay users back?
Legitimacy
BBB
64 / 100
Is it real, credible, delivering its stated aim?
GrowthOUTLOOK
B
31.3 / 100
Adoption toward the protocol's own goal, peer-relative.
Re-screen · November 12, 2026

What Changed Since July 27, 2026

Input / GradeJuly 27, 2026November 12, 2026
TVL$0.5B$0.22B
12-month TVL change-40%-50%
Worst 90-day drawdown40%11%
Drawdown scored40% (90-day only, v1.0)50% (worse of 90-day and 12-month, v1.1)
Solvency (credit grade)BBB · 64.8BBB · 64.8
GrowthB · 31.3B · 31.3

TVL figures: DefiLlama, parent-level listing. The July 27, 2026 TVL was an analyst estimate and may have used a narrower definition, so part of the TVL difference can be definitional. Only these three inputs were refreshed in the re-screen; sustainability, unlocks, risk, audits, team, delivery, governance, category share and momentum were left as the July 27, 2026 estimates.

Axis I · Credit Grade

Solvency — BBB

Solvency screens at BBB (64.8 / 100), unchanged from the July 27, 2026 screen. The worst 90-day TVL drawdown is 11% and 12-month TVL change is -50%. TVL stability is scored on the 12-month decline of 50%, because it is worse than the latest 90 days. Sustainability ratio (3x), unlock pressure (2%) and risk quality (6 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Solvency ScorecardBBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Sustainability ratio (revenue / emissions)3x
30%24
Does it earn more than it prints? Above 1x is self-sustaining.
TVL stability (worse of 90-day drawdown and 12-month decline)50%
25%10
Bank-run indicator. Worst 90-day drawdown 11%, 12-month TVL change -50%; the worse of the two is scored, so a calm quarter cannot erase a long decline.
Unlock pressure (next 12 months)2%
15%12.8
Incoming insider sell pressure vs circulating supply.
Risk quality (collateral, oracle, exploit posture)6 / 10
30%18
Combined collateral quality, price-feed dependence, and loss history.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE64.8 → BBB
Axis II · Legitimacy Score

Legitimacy — BBB

Legitimacy screens at BBB (64 / 100). No Legitimacy input was refreshed in the November 12, 2026 re-screen, so the grade is unchanged from July 27, 2026.

Legitimacy ScorecardBBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Audit coverage7 / 10
25%17.5
Code credibility: firms, recency, findings resolved.
Team & transparency7 / 10
25%17.5
Doxxed vs anonymous; track record; disclosure quality.
Delivery vs stated roadmap7 / 10
20%14
Does shipped product match the promise? The core legitimacy test.
Governance & decentralization5 / 10
30%15
Real distributed control vs theater; participation quality.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE64 → BBB
Axis III · Growth Outlook

Growth — B

Growth screens at B (31.3 / 100), unchanged from the July 27, 2026 screen. TVL is $0.22B, -50% over twelve months (it was -40% at the previous screen). Category share (7%) and momentum (3 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Growth ScorecardB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
TVL 12-month trend-50%
35%8.8
Adoption of the core product, in absolute terms.
Category market share7%
30%12
Peer-relative position: winning or losing its niche.
Momentum & users3 / 10
35%10.5
Usage trajectory and integration growth, filtered for incentives.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE31.3 → B
Verdict

Where GMX Lands

The credit grade is Solvency BBB. Legitimacy is BBB and the Growth outlook is B; the weakest axis is Growth. These grades use TVL data as of November 12, 2026 and qualitative inputs from July 27, 2026.

Credit Grade — Solvency
BBB
64.8 / 100

The credit grade answers one question: can GMX survive stress and pay its users back. Legitimacy (BBB) and the Growth outlook (B) are published beside it and are never averaged into it. Weakest axis: Growth.

Analyst Note
Jul 2025 V1 exploit $42M with $40M returned — reflected in risk score, no cap.
Screen vs full rating. This is Methodology v1.1 applied in screening form: the same bands, weights, caps and grade scale as the full Aave workbook (with the v1.1 change to TVL stability described above), reduced to the highest-signal metrics per dimension so the whole universe stays comparable in one table. Screen grades are provisional. A full rating — per-metric sourcing plus four stress scenarios — is produced when a protocol is selected for publication. TVL, 12-month TVL change and 90-day drawdown are from DefiLlama, parent-level listing as of November 12, 2026; every other input is an analyst estimate as of July 27, 2026, drawn from public data (DefiLlama, protocol docs, governance forums, rekt.news) and judgment, and should be verified before being relied upon.
Derivatives Peers
ProtocolSolvencyLegitimacyGrowth
GMX (this page)BBBBBBB
HyperliquidAAAAA
DriftBBBBBB
dYdXBBACCC

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Analyst Commentary · July 27, 2026

Background From The Previous Screen

Dated commentary. Written for the July 27, 2026 screen under Methodology v1.0. Figures and grades quoted in it are as of that date. Where they differ from the scorecards above, the scorecards are current.

Overview

GMX pioneered the pooled-liquidity perpetuals model that defined on-chain derivatives before order-book venues took over. Its July 2025 V1 exploit — $42M drained, roughly $40M returned by the attacker after a negotiated bounty — is the instructive counterpoint to Balancer in this screen: near-complete restitution means the framework reflects the event in the risk score without triggering a notching cap.

Solvency

Solvency screens at BBB. Real fee coverage (~3x) from trading volume, minimal unlock pressure on a mature token, and a 40% drawdown. The 6/10 risk score is where the exploit lives — the flaw was real and reached user funds, but recovery was substantially complete and V2 was unaffected, so the framework prices it as damage rather than as an open wound.

Legitimacy

Legitimacy screens at BBB. The pseudonymous team handled the incident with fast disclosure and successful recovery negotiation — creditable exploit-response quality. Audits (7/10) and delivery are adequate; governance is functional if low-participation.

Growth

Growth screens at B: 7% share and 3/10 momentum as Hyperliquid absorbed the derivatives category's growth. GLP-style pooled liquidity is losing the design argument to order books.

Verdict

Composite B. A protocol whose technology thesis is being outcompeted rather than one whose credit is impaired. The contrast with Balancer is the cleanest illustration in this screen of what restitution does to a rating.