Detecting DeFi Risk, Before It Breaks
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Rating Screen · Methodology v1.1

dYdX

Derivatives · DYDX · $0.08B TVL. Screen grades as of November 12, 2026: Solvency BB, Legitimacy A, Growth CCC. App-chain migration complete; volume share lost to Hyperliquid.

Data As Of November 12, 2026 Methodology v1.1 (screen, provisional) Previous Screen July 27, 2026 Caps Triggered 0
SolvencyCREDIT GRADE
BB
58.5 / 100
Will it survive and pay users back?
Legitimacy
A
72 / 100
Is it real, credible, delivering its stated aim?
GrowthOUTLOOK
CCC
26 / 100
Adoption toward the protocol's own goal, peer-relative.
Re-screen · November 12, 2026

What Changed Since July 27, 2026

Input / GradeJuly 27, 2026November 12, 2026
TVL$0.35B$0.08B
12-month TVL change-50%-62%
Worst 90-day drawdown45%34%
Drawdown scored45% (90-day only, v1.0)62% (worse of 90-day and 12-month, v1.1)
Solvency (credit grade)BBB · 64.8BB · 58.5
GrowthB · 31.3CCC · 26

TVL figures: DefiLlama, parent-level listing. The July 27, 2026 TVL was an analyst estimate and may have used a narrower definition, so part of the TVL difference can be definitional. Only these three inputs were refreshed in the re-screen; sustainability, unlocks, risk, audits, team, delivery, governance, category share and momentum were left as the July 27, 2026 estimates.

Axis I · Credit Grade

Solvency — BB

Solvency screens at BB (58.5 / 100), previously BBB in the July 27, 2026 screen. The worst 90-day TVL drawdown is 34% and 12-month TVL change is -62%. TVL stability is scored on the 12-month decline of 62%, because it is worse than the latest 90 days. Sustainability ratio (2x), unlock pressure (5%) and risk quality (7 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Solvency ScorecardBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Sustainability ratio (revenue / emissions)2x
30%24
Does it earn more than it prints? Above 1x is self-sustaining.
TVL stability (worse of 90-day drawdown and 12-month decline)62%
25%3.8
Bank-run indicator. Worst 90-day drawdown 34%, 12-month TVL change -62%; the worse of the two is scored, so a calm quarter cannot erase a long decline.
Unlock pressure (next 12 months)5%
15%9.8
Incoming insider sell pressure vs circulating supply.
Risk quality (collateral, oracle, exploit posture)7 / 10
30%21
Combined collateral quality, price-feed dependence, and loss history.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE58.5 → BB
Axis II · Legitimacy Score

Legitimacy — A

Legitimacy screens at A (72 / 100). No Legitimacy input was refreshed in the November 12, 2026 re-screen, so the grade is unchanged from July 27, 2026.

Legitimacy ScorecardA
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Audit coverage8 / 10
25%20
Code credibility: firms, recency, findings resolved.
Team & transparency8 / 10
25%20
Doxxed vs anonymous; track record; disclosure quality.
Delivery vs stated roadmap7 / 10
20%14
Does shipped product match the promise? The core legitimacy test.
Governance & decentralization6 / 10
30%18
Real distributed control vs theater; participation quality.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE72 → A
Axis III · Growth Outlook

Growth — CCC

Growth screens at CCC (26 / 100), previously B in the July 27, 2026 screen. TVL is $0.08B, -62% over twelve months (it was -50% at the previous screen). Category share (5%) and momentum (3 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Growth ScorecardCCC
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
TVL 12-month trend-62%
35%3.5
Adoption of the core product, in absolute terms.
Category market share5%
30%12
Peer-relative position: winning or losing its niche.
Momentum & users3 / 10
35%10.5
Usage trajectory and integration growth, filtered for incentives.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE26 → CCC
Verdict

Where dYdX Lands

The credit grade is Solvency BB. Legitimacy is A and the Growth outlook is CCC; the weakest axis is Growth. These grades use TVL data as of November 12, 2026 and qualitative inputs from July 27, 2026.

Credit Grade — Solvency
BB
58.5 / 100

The credit grade answers one question: can dYdX survive stress and pay its users back. Legitimacy (A) and the Growth outlook (CCC) are published beside it and are never averaged into it. Weakest axis: Growth.

Analyst Note
App-chain migration complete; volume share lost to Hyperliquid.
Screen vs full rating. This is Methodology v1.1 applied in screening form: the same bands, weights, caps and grade scale as the full Aave workbook (with the v1.1 change to TVL stability described above), reduced to the highest-signal metrics per dimension so the whole universe stays comparable in one table. Screen grades are provisional. A full rating — per-metric sourcing plus four stress scenarios — is produced when a protocol is selected for publication. TVL, 12-month TVL change and 90-day drawdown are from DefiLlama, parent-level listing as of November 12, 2026; every other input is an analyst estimate as of July 27, 2026, drawn from public data (DefiLlama, protocol docs, governance forums, rekt.news) and judgment, and should be verified before being relied upon.
Derivatives Peers
ProtocolSolvencyLegitimacyGrowth
dYdX (this page)BBACCC
HyperliquidAAAAA
DriftBBBBBB
GMXBBBBBBB

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Analyst Commentary · July 27, 2026

Background From The Previous Screen

Dated commentary. Written for the July 27, 2026 screen under Methodology v1.0. Figures and grades quoted in it are as of that date. Where they differ from the scorecards above, the scorecards are current.

Overview

dYdX made the boldest infrastructure bet in DeFi derivatives — abandoning Ethereum for its own Cosmos app-chain to run a fully on-chain order book — and completed the migration successfully. Then Hyperliquid did the same thing faster and took the market. The screen scores a well-executed strategy overtaken by a better-executed one.

Solvency

Solvency screens at BBB. Fee coverage (~2x) persists on residual volume, unlocks are moderate, and the risk posture is solid — the v4 chain has run without a major incident. The 50% TVL decline is the dominant negative input.

Legitimacy

Legitimacy screens at A, among the better readings in the small-cap cohort: strong audits, a long-tenured public team, real delivery of an extremely hard technical migration, and 6/10 governance with genuine validator and token-holder participation.

Growth

Growth screens at B and it is the entire problem: 5% share, 3/10 momentum, halved TVL. Liquidity migrated to the venue with better execution and a stronger fee-to-holder flywheel, and derivatives liquidity is famously non-returning.

Verdict

Composite B. High-quality protocol, losing category. A full rating would ask the uncomfortable question directly: is there a durable second place in on-chain perpetuals, or does the category consolidate to one venue?