Detecting DeFi Risk, Before It Breaks
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Rating Certificate · No. 0002

Aave

Lending protocol · AAVE. Full quantitative scorecard under Methodology v1.1 — normalized bands, weighted scoring, fatal-flaw notching caps, and a stress-tested Solvency grade across four standardized shocks.

Refreshed November 13, 2026 First Rated July 21, 2026 Methodology v1.1 (quantitative) Caps Triggered 0
Solvency · Credit Grade
A
78.5 / 100 · was AA (89.3) on July 21
Will it survive and pay users back?
Legitimacy
AA
87.0 / 100
Is it real, credible, delivering its stated aim?
Growth · Outlook
BB
46.5 / 100 · was 58.5 on July 21
Adoption toward the protocol's own goal, peer-relative.
Axis I · Credit Grade

Solvency — A

Aave still earns far more than it emits: protocol revenue of $87.1M over twelve months against about $10.4M of AAVE rewards. The grade moves from AA to A for two reasons. TVL is 52% lower than a year ago, and the April 2026 rsETH incident showed a dependency risk that the July 21 rating did not score.

Correction: the April 2026 rsETH incident. On April 18, 2026 an attacker drained 116,500 rsETH (about $292M) from Kelp DAO's bridge and borrowed against it on Aave V3. Aave's incident report estimated the resulting bad debt at $124M to $230M, against about $54M in the Umbrella WETH module. A recovery effort led by Aave (DeFi United) restored rsETH's backing, and Aave's post-mortem reports WETH and rsETH markets operating normally. Our July 21 rating gave full marks for exploit history and did not mention this. That was our error. Two inputs below are lowered to 6 / 10 to reflect it: users were made whole, but through an external recovery several times larger than Aave's own backstop. Sources: Aave incident report · Aave post-mortem · The Block · DefiLlama hacks database
Solvency ScorecardA
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Sustainability ratio (protocol revenue / emissions)8.3x
20%20.0
Treasury runway (net of revenue)999 mo
20%20.0
TVL stability (worse of 90-day drawdown and 12-month decline)52%
15%6.0
Collateral cushion (borrowed / net deposits)74.2%
15%10.5
Unlock pressure (next 12 mo)0%
10%10.0
Oracle & dependency risk6 / 10
10%6.0
Exploit financial impact history6 / 10
10%6.0
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE78.5 → A

What Changed Since July 21, And Where Each Number Comes From

InputJuly 21November 13Source Or Basis
Sustainability ratio13.4x8.3xProtocol revenue $87.1M over 12 months; about 92,800 AAVE of staking and farming rewards, about $10.4M (DefiLlama). July used a blended $402M revenue figure. On total fees of $611M the ratio is higher; both are above the 5x top band.
Treasury runway999 mo999 moNot re-checked. Estimate carried over from July 21.
TVL stability35% (90-day)52%Methodology v1.1 scores the worse of the 90-day drawdown (21.3%) and the 12-month decline (52%: $15.6B now, $32.5B a year ago). Peak to trough inside the year was 66.6% (DefiLlama).
Collateral cushion74.8%74.2%Borrowed $11.6B against $15.6B of net deposits (DefiLlama).
Unlock pressure0.5%0%No scheduled unlocks remain in DefiLlama's schedule.
Oracle & dependency risk9 / 106 / 10Analyst judgment. The rsETH loss came through collateral Aave had accepted at high loan-to-value. DefiLlama's hacks database also lists a March 12, 2026 oracle misconfiguration on Aave V3 ($862K).
Exploit financial impact history10 / 106 / 10Analyst judgment. Estimated bad debt of $124M to $230M in April 2026, later resolved through the DeFi United recovery.

Stress-Tested Solvency

These scenarios were run on the July 21 inputs and have not yet been re-run on the refreshed scorecard. They are shown as published. April 2026 is now a real observation to set beside them: Aave's TVL fell from $26.4B on April 18 to $14.2B by April 26, about 46% in eight days (DefiLlama), and WETH utilization reached 100%. The S2 bank-run scenario assumed a 60% drawdown and 90% utilization.

ScenarioRevenue ΔTreasury ΔDrawdownUtilizationScoreGrade
Base (July 21)0%0%35%74.8%89.3AA
S1 · Market crash-40%-30%50%88%81.8AA
S2 · Bank run-50%-10%60%90%78.0A
S3 · Stablecoin depeg-20%-10%45%80%80.5AA
S4 · Dependency failure-30%-10%40%78%76.5A
Axis II · Legitimacy Score

Legitimacy — AA

Team transparency and the live bug bounty program both score a full 10/10 — Aave Labs is fully doxxed with a track record since 2017. The softest spot is governance activity: forum and Snapshot/AIP participation is real, but voting power is delegate-concentrated.

Legitimacy ScorecardAA
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Audit coverage (firms, recency, quality)9 / 10
20%18.0
Team transparency10 / 10
15%15.0
Delivery vs stated roadmap9 / 10
15%13.5
Governance activity & quality7 / 10
15%10.5
Exploit response quality9 / 10
10%9.0
Holder concentration (top-10 %)25%
10%7.0
Admin keys / upgradeability safety9 / 10
10%9.0
Bug bounty program10 / 10
5%5.0
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE87.0 → AA

Legitimacy inputs were not re-scored in this refresh and are carried over from July 21. The April 2026 response (rsETH markets frozen within 85 minutes, a recovery led by Aave, a published post-mortem) is consistent with the 9 / 10 exploit-response score.

Axis III · Growth Outlook

Growth — BB

Aave is still the largest lender we rate, with 33% of DefiLlama's Lending category, and has the deepest integration surface in DeFi. The outlook stays BB and the score falls from 58.5 to 46.5: TVL and borrows are both about half what they were a year ago, and revenue is down 32%.

Growth ScorecardBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
TVL 12-month trend-52%
20%2.0
Category market share33.2%
20%16.0
Revenue 12-month trend-32%
15%3.8
Active users 12-month trend-10%
15%6.8
Volume / borrows 12-month trend-51%
10%1.0
Integrations & composability10 / 10
10%10.0
User retention / stickiness7 / 10
10%7.0
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE46.5 → BB

Sources (DefiLlama, November 13, 2026): TVL $15.6B against $32.5B a year ago; $15.6B of the $46.9B Lending category; protocol revenue $87.0M against $127.2M in the prior twelve months; borrows $11.6B against $23.6B. Active users, integrations and retention were not re-checked and are carried over from July 21.

Verdict

The Credit Grade Is Solvency: A

DeFiScoreAudit publishes all three axis grades separately by design. The Solvency grade is the credit grade. Legitimacy is published beside it, and Growth is shown as a separate outlook on adoption; neither is averaged into the credit grade.

Credit Grade — Solvency
A
78.5 / 100 · was AA (89.3) on July 21

The credit grade answers one question: can Aave survive stress and pay its users back. It did in April 2026, with outside help. The grade is A because that help was needed and because deposits are half what they were a year ago.

Growth Outlook — Weakest Axis
BB
46.5 / 100

Growth is Aave's weakest axis: Solvency is A and Legitimacy is AA, but TVL, borrows and revenue are all down on the year. It shows where Aave is most exposed; it is not a statement about Aave's ability to pay its users back.

Data Caveats. Treasury runway, active-user trend, holder concentration and every Legitimacy input are estimates carried over from July 21 and were not re-checked in this refresh. The two exploit-related Solvency scores are analyst judgment. The four stress scenarios have not been re-run on the refreshed inputs. No notching cap is applied: the April 2026 bad debt has been resolved, and there is no single-oracle dependence, unilateral admin upgrade key or anonymous team control. Corrections are welcome and will be published with a date.