Detecting DeFi Risk, Before It Breaks
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Rating Screen · Methodology v1.1

Balancer

DEX · BAL · $0.03B TVL. Screen grades as of November 12, 2026: Solvency BB, Legitimacy A, Growth CCC. CAP BB: Nov 2025 V2 exploit (~$100M+), partial recovery — Solvency capped pending full restitution/verification.

Data As Of November 12, 2026 Methodology v1.1 (screen, provisional) Previous Screen July 27, 2026 Caps Triggered 1 (not binding)
SolvencyCREDIT GRADE
BB
48.8 / 100
Will it survive and pay users back?
Legitimacy
A
72 / 100
Is it real, credible, delivering its stated aim?
GrowthOUTLOOK
CCC
26 / 100
Adoption toward the protocol's own goal, peer-relative.
Re-screen · November 12, 2026

What Changed Since July 27, 2026

Input / GradeJuly 27, 2026November 12, 2026
TVL$0.6B$0.03B
12-month TVL change-50%-90%
Worst 90-day drawdown55%57%
Drawdown scored55% (90-day only, v1.0)90% (worse of 90-day and 12-month, v1.1)
Solvency (credit grade)BB · 55BB · 48.8
GrowthB · 31.3CCC · 26

TVL figures: DefiLlama, parent-level listing. The July 27, 2026 TVL was an analyst estimate and may have used a narrower definition, so part of the TVL difference can be definitional. Only these three inputs were refreshed in the re-screen; sustainability, unlocks, risk, audits, team, delivery, governance, category share and momentum were left as the July 27, 2026 estimates.

Axis I · Credit Grade

Solvency — BB

Solvency screens at BB (48.8 / 100), unchanged from the July 27, 2026 screen. The worst 90-day TVL drawdown is 57% and 12-month TVL change is -90%. TVL stability is scored on the 12-month decline of 90%, because it is worse than the latest 90 days. Sustainability ratio (1x), unlock pressure (1%) and risk quality (4 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Solvency ScorecardBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Sustainability ratio (revenue / emissions)1x
30%18
Does it earn more than it prints? Above 1x is self-sustaining.
TVL stability (worse of 90-day drawdown and 12-month decline)90%
25%3.8
Bank-run indicator. Worst 90-day drawdown 57%, 12-month TVL change -90%; the worse of the two is scored, so a calm quarter cannot erase a long decline.
Unlock pressure (next 12 months)1%
15%15
Incoming insider sell pressure vs circulating supply.
Risk quality (collateral, oracle, exploit posture)4 / 10
30%12
Combined collateral quality, price-feed dependence, and loss history.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE48.8 → BB
Notching cap declared — not binding. A fatal-flaw condition places a ceiling of 59 on Solvency, but the weighted inputs already compute to 48.8, below that ceiling. The cap therefore changes nothing about the published grade — the fundamentals set it. The cap remains on file and would bind if the underlying inputs recovered before the flaw was resolved. Trigger: CAP BB: Nov 2025 V2 exploit (~$100M+), partial recovery — Solvency capped pending full restitution/verification.
Axis II · Legitimacy Score

Legitimacy — A

Legitimacy screens at A (72 / 100). No Legitimacy input was refreshed in the November 12, 2026 re-screen, so the grade is unchanged from July 27, 2026.

Legitimacy ScorecardA
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Audit coverage8 / 10
25%20
Code credibility: firms, recency, findings resolved.
Team & transparency8 / 10
25%20
Doxxed vs anonymous; track record; disclosure quality.
Delivery vs stated roadmap7 / 10
20%14
Does shipped product match the promise? The core legitimacy test.
Governance & decentralization6 / 10
30%18
Real distributed control vs theater; participation quality.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE72 → A
Axis III · Growth Outlook

Growth — CCC

Growth screens at CCC (26 / 100), previously B in the July 27, 2026 screen. TVL is $0.03B, -90% over twelve months (it was -50% at the previous screen). Category share (5%) and momentum (3 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Growth ScorecardCCC
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
TVL 12-month trend-90%
35%3.5
Adoption of the core product, in absolute terms.
Category market share5%
30%12
Peer-relative position: winning or losing its niche.
Momentum & users3 / 10
35%10.5
Usage trajectory and integration growth, filtered for incentives.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE26 → CCC
Verdict

Where Balancer Lands

The credit grade is Solvency BB. Legitimacy is A and the Growth outlook is CCC; the weakest axis is Growth. These grades use TVL data as of November 12, 2026 and qualitative inputs from July 27, 2026.

Credit Grade — Solvency
BB
48.8 / 100

The credit grade answers one question: can Balancer survive stress and pay its users back. Legitimacy (A) and the Growth outlook (CCC) are published beside it and are never averaged into it. Weakest axis: Growth.

Analyst Note
CAP BB: Nov 2025 V2 exploit (~$100M+), partial recovery — Solvency capped pending full restitution/verification.
Screen vs full rating. This is Methodology v1.1 applied in screening form: the same bands, weights, caps and grade scale as the full Aave workbook (with the v1.1 change to TVL stability described above), reduced to the highest-signal metrics per dimension so the whole universe stays comparable in one table. Screen grades are provisional. A full rating — per-metric sourcing plus four stress scenarios — is produced when a protocol is selected for publication. TVL, 12-month TVL change and 90-day drawdown are from DefiLlama, parent-level listing as of November 12, 2026; every other input is an analyst estimate as of July 27, 2026, drawn from public data (DefiLlama, protocol docs, governance forums, rekt.news) and judgment, and should be verified before being relied upon.
DEX Peers
ProtocolSolvencyLegitimacyGrowth
Balancer (this page)BBACCC
UniswapAAAABB
CurveBBBAB
PancakeSwapABBBBB
RaydiumBBBBBBB
AerodromeBBBBBBB
SushiSwapBBBBCCC

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Analyst Commentary · July 27, 2026

Background From The Previous Screen

Dated commentary. Written for the July 27, 2026 screen under Methodology v1.0. Figures and grades quoted in it are as of that date. Where they differ from the scorecards above, the scorecards are current.

Overview

Balancer is the only protocol in this screen carrying an active notching cap. The November 2025 exploit of its V2 vault — a rounding-error flaw in the stable-pool math that drained well over $100M across chains — is exactly the fatal-flaw condition Methodology v1.0 was written to handle: a weakness that cannot be averaged away by good scores elsewhere.

Solvency

Solvency screens at BB (55.0), with a notching cap of 59 declared over it. The cap does not bind here — the weighted inputs already land below the ceiling — which is itself the finding: Balancer's fundamentals are weak enough on their own that the fatal-flaw ceiling never has to do any work. A 55% drawdown, the deepest in the universe, and a 4/10 risk score reflect that the exploit reached core vault accounting rather than a peripheral integration, while the ~1x sustainability ratio leaves no cushion to absorb it.

Legitimacy

Legitimacy screens at A, and the divergence from Solvency is the interesting part. Balancer's audit history was genuinely deep, the team disclosed and coordinated the response publicly, white-hat recovery efforts were real, and governance functioned through the crisis. The framework treats disclosure quality and solvency damage as separate questions — a protocol can handle a disaster honorably and still be uncreditworthy while the hole is open.

Growth

Growth screens at B: TVL halved, share down to ~5%, momentum 3/10. The exploit accelerated an erosion already underway as the boosted-pool and veBAL flywheel lost ground to newer AMM designs.

Verdict

Composite B, set by Growth. The declared cap stays on the file until restitution is verified and the V3 accounting surface is re-audited — but the more sobering point is that Solvency is already below the ceiling without it. Recovery here is not a matter of lifting a cap; it is a matter of rebuilding fundamentals.