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Rating Screen · Methodology v1.1

Babylon

BTC Staking · BABY · $3B TVL. Screen grades as of November 12, 2026: Solvency B, Legitimacy BBB, Growth BB. Novel BTC staking primitive; heavy unlock schedule; economic security model young.

Data As Of November 12, 2026 Methodology v1.1 (screen, provisional) Previous Screen July 27, 2026 Caps Triggered 0
SolvencyCREDIT GRADE
B
40.8 / 100
Will it survive and pay users back?
Legitimacy
BBB
63.5 / 100
Is it real, credible, delivering its stated aim?
GrowthOUTLOOK
BB
52.8 / 100
Adoption toward the protocol's own goal, peer-relative.
Re-screen · November 12, 2026

What Changed Since July 27, 2026

Input / GradeJuly 27, 2026November 12, 2026
TVL$4B$3B
12-month TVL change-40%-48%
Worst 90-day drawdown50%14%
Drawdown scored50% (90-day only, v1.0)48% (worse of 90-day and 12-month, v1.1)
Solvency (credit grade)B · 40.8B · 40.8
GrowthBB · 52.8BB · 52.8

TVL figures: DefiLlama, parent-level listing. The July 27, 2026 TVL was an analyst estimate and may have used a narrower definition, so part of the TVL difference can be definitional. Only these three inputs were refreshed in the re-screen; sustainability, unlocks, risk, audits, team, delivery, governance, category share and momentum were left as the July 27, 2026 estimates.

Axis I · Credit Grade

Solvency — B

Solvency screens at B (40.8 / 100), unchanged from the July 27, 2026 screen. The worst 90-day TVL drawdown is 14% and 12-month TVL change is -48%. TVL stability is scored on the 12-month decline of 48%, because it is worse than the latest 90 days. Sustainability ratio (0.5x), unlock pressure (20%) and risk quality (6 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Solvency ScorecardB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Sustainability ratio (revenue / emissions)0.5x
30%10.5
Does it earn more than it prints? Above 1x is self-sustaining.
TVL stability (worse of 90-day drawdown and 12-month decline)48%
25%10
Bank-run indicator. Worst 90-day drawdown 14%, 12-month TVL change -48%; the worse of the two is scored, so a calm quarter cannot erase a long decline.
Unlock pressure (next 12 months)20%
15%2.3
Incoming insider sell pressure vs circulating supply.
Risk quality (collateral, oracle, exploit posture)6 / 10
30%18
Combined collateral quality, price-feed dependence, and loss history.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE40.8 → B
Axis II · Legitimacy Score

Legitimacy — BBB

Legitimacy screens at BBB (63.5 / 100). No Legitimacy input was refreshed in the November 12, 2026 re-screen, so the grade is unchanged from July 27, 2026.

Legitimacy ScorecardBBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
Audit coverage7 / 10
25%17.5
Code credibility: firms, recency, findings resolved.
Team & transparency8 / 10
25%20
Doxxed vs anonymous; track record; disclosure quality.
Delivery vs stated roadmap7 / 10
20%14
Does shipped product match the promise? The core legitimacy test.
Governance & decentralization4 / 10
30%12
Real distributed control vs theater; participation quality.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE63.5 → BBB
Axis III · Growth Outlook

Growth — BB

Growth screens at BB (52.8 / 100), unchanged from the July 27, 2026 screen. TVL is $3B, -48% over twelve months (it was -40% at the previous screen). Category share (75%) and momentum (4 / 10) are carried over from July 27, 2026.

Growth ScorecardBB
MetricRawNormalizedWeightWeighted
TVL 12-month trend-48%
35%8.8
Adoption of the core product, in absolute terms.
Category market share75%
30%30
Peer-relative position: winning or losing its niche.
Momentum & users4 / 10
35%14
Usage trajectory and integration growth, filtered for incentives.
FINAL DIMENSION SCORE52.8 → BB
Verdict

Where Babylon Lands

The credit grade is Solvency B. Legitimacy is BBB and the Growth outlook is BB; the weakest axis is Solvency. These grades use TVL data as of November 12, 2026 and qualitative inputs from July 27, 2026.

Credit Grade — Solvency
B
40.8 / 100

The credit grade answers one question: can Babylon survive stress and pay its users back. Legitimacy (BBB) and the Growth outlook (BB) are published beside it and are never averaged into it. Weakest axis: Solvency.

Analyst Note
Novel BTC staking primitive; heavy unlock schedule; economic security model young.
Screen vs full rating. This is Methodology v1.1 applied in screening form: the same bands, weights, caps and grade scale as the full Aave workbook (with the v1.1 change to TVL stability described above), reduced to the highest-signal metrics per dimension so the whole universe stays comparable in one table. Screen grades are provisional. A full rating — per-metric sourcing plus four stress scenarios — is produced when a protocol is selected for publication. TVL, 12-month TVL change and 90-day drawdown are from DefiLlama, parent-level listing as of November 12, 2026; every other input is an analyst estimate as of July 27, 2026, drawn from public data (DefiLlama, protocol docs, governance forums, rekt.news) and judgment, and should be verified before being relied upon.
Babylon is the only BTC Staking protocol in the current coverage universe. Compare it against all rated protocols.
Want the full treatment? See the complete Aave rating — per-metric sourcing, four stress scenarios, and notching-cap analysis — for what a published rating looks like. Join the waitlist to get each new full rating as it publishes.
Analyst Commentary · July 27, 2026

Background From The Previous Screen

Dated commentary. Written for the July 27, 2026 screen under Methodology v1.0. Figures and grades quoted in it are as of that date. Where they differ from the scorecards above, the scorecards are current.

Overview

Babylon is the dominant venue for native bitcoin staking — a genuinely novel primitive that lets BTC secure proof-of-stake systems without bridging or wrapping. It commands ~75% of its young category at $4B TVL, but the screen scores it as a thesis still paying for itself with emissions.

Solvency

Solvency screens at B, the second-weakest in the universe. The sustainability ratio (~0.5x) reflects security-budget revenue that has not yet materialized at scale, the unlock schedule is the heaviest in the screen (~20% of supply over twelve months), and TVL halved from peak. The staking contracts themselves are conservative — the deduction is economic, not architectural.

Legitimacy

Legitimacy screens at BBB. The cryptography is peer-reviewed and the team is academically credible; audits are adequate for the protocol's age. Governance is embryonic (4/10) and the economic security model — what happens to staked BTC across fault conditions on consumer chains — is young enough that delivery is scored on promise partially kept.

Growth

Growth screens at BB: overwhelming category share, weak absolute trajectory. The BTC-fi narrative pulled enormous deposits in, and the retracement shows how much was points-motivated. Momentum is soft until secured chains begin paying meaningful fees.

Verdict

Composite B. The screen's read: the most important unproven idea in the universe. If shared bitcoin security develops a real fee market, every input improves at once; until then the unlock schedule against thin revenue is the dominant credit fact.